Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States from September 23 to 25, marking his first trip to American soil since 2023, when he met with former President Joe Biden during the APEC summit in San Francisco.
Trade Tensions and Tariff Threats Set Stage
The visit comes amid heightened economic friction, with President Donald Trump having recently signed a sanctions law authorizing tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, including China. Beijing has rejected these measures, stating that normal trade relations should not be subject to third-party pressure.
“China opposes long-arm jurisdiction and unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and lack a UN Security Council mandate,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun last week.
Despite the tariff threats, both nations are negotiating a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework covering $30 billion in duty-free or low-tariff imports, according to China’s commerce ministry. Analysts suggest potential deals in agriculture and aviation may be announced, possibly with ceremonial signings.
Fragile Truce and Geopolitical Challenges
A key point of discussion will be the trade truce signed in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025. Under that agreement, Trump reduced tariffs in exchange for China cracking down on fentanyl precursors, resuming soybean purchases, and pausing rare-earth export controls. The truce expires in November, and while both sides seek an extension, their desired durations differ significantly.
“The Chinese have wanted an agreement to extend the trade ceasefire through the end of the Trump administration,” noted Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at CSIS. “The Trump administration just wants to extend it for a few months to maintain leverage on China. I think they’ll end up somewhere in the middle, probably at about a year.”
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The ongoing war in Iran, where China remains the largest oil customer, may also surface during bilateral talks. Washington has reportedly urged Xi to pressure Tehran economically, though Beijing maintains it is unaware of any sanctions-evasion schemes despite claims from U.S. officials.
Ahead of the summit, high-level economic discussions took place in New York on September 17, involving Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The two sides engaged in what Xinhua described as “candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges” on mutual economic concerns, including artificial intelligence.
AI and Technology on the Agenda
Chinese state media described the exchanges as candid and constructive, though no specific agreements were disclosed.
Taiwan and Arms Sales in the Shadows
Beijing is expected to press Washington on Taiwan during the summit, framing it as a core interest that could affect broader cooperation. A $14 billion arms package approved by Congress remains un-notified to Beijing, a delay seen as an effort to avoid tension ahead of high-level talks.
Chinese advisers have indicated that progress on trade or other issues may depend on U.S. restraint regarding Taiwan. Washington continues to support the self-governing island with defensive arms, citing its own legal obligations, while China views such sales as interference in its internal affairs.
The unresolved status of the arms sale and divergent positions on Taiwan sovereignty suggest that even symbolic gestures could cast a shadow over otherwise positive economic outcomes from the visit.
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